AfD on the threshold of power in Saxony-Anhalt: Merz warns of damage to investors

Ahead of the September 6 election in Saxony-Anhalt, the Alternative for Germany party is polling at around 42% — a result that could bring the far right to power in one of Germany’s federal states for the first time since World War II.

Chancellor Friedrich Merz warned that such an outcome would cause long-term economic damage to the eastern state.

In an interview with public broadcaster ARD, Merz was unequivocal:

“I cannot imagine international investors attending a groundbreaking ceremony alongside an AfD minister-president for the opening of new factories and the creation of new businesses in Saxony-Anhalt,” the chancellor said on ARD.

According to the latest polling data, the AfD is at 42% — nearly twice the figure for Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) at 22%. If that picture holds, the AfD will likely fall just short of an absolute majority, and the election outcome will depend on whether smaller parties clear the five-percent threshold. All mainstream parties have said they will not enter a coalition with the AfD, meaning the state’s incumbent CDU minister-president Sven Schulze will likely attempt to form a minority government.

The AfD’s regional branch in Saxony-Anhalt has been designated a confirmed far-right extremist organization by Germany’s domestic intelligence service. It is led by 35-year-old Ulrich Siegmund, whom Der Spiegel magazine recently called “the most dangerous man in Germany.” The party’s platform includes mass deportations, separate schooling for refugee children, the abolition of inclusive education, and the resumption of student exchanges with Russian schools.

Alarm is growing across Germany. A poll by the Insa sociological institute found that 47% of Germans believe the country would be harmed if the AfD came to power, while 22% said they would leave the country if that happened. In Saxony-Anhalt itself, migrants are already preparing to leave — the AfD has promised an “offensive on deportation and remigration” targeting, among others, the state’s 39,000 Ukrainian residents.

The ripple effect could extend far beyond the region. A victory would give the AfD its first chairmanship in the Bundesrat — the upper house of the German parliament — and hand the party a platform to delay federal legislation and campaign against energy sanctions on Russia and military aid to Ukraine. The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) in Saxony-Anhalt has signaled that it intends to use AfD votes to advance an initiative opposing further German military support for Kyiv.

The so-called “firewall” — an agreement among mainstream parties to refuse cooperation with the AfD — is cracking. A CDU mayor in one of Saxony-Anhalt’s cities publicly announced a donation of €10,000 to the AfD and said he intends to vote for the party. Michael Kretschmer, minister-president of neighboring Saxony, said that those who continue to talk about the “firewall” have “not read the signs of the times.”

The AfD is also leading in polls ahead of the September 20 elections in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and holds a strong position in the Berlin elections scheduled for the same day. Siegmund has called for an AfD “domino effect” of victories across Germany, while party leader Alice Weidel described forming a government in Saxony-Anhalt as “the first step” toward winning federal power. Merz, for his part, declined to specify what the CDU would do if the AfD fell short of a majority, saying only: “We will do everything possible to prevent radicals from seizing Saxony-Anhalt.”