In 2026, Ukraine will have a trade deficit of more than $70 billion — Ministry of Economy

Minister of Economy and Environment Oleksandr Kravchenko at the Kyiv International Economic Forum (KIEF) on Monday presented a forecast for Ukraine’s trade balance: by the end of 2026, the country may have a negative trade balance of more than $70 billion. This is reported by Interfax-Ukraine.

This deficit is driven by critical imports of weaponry and energy equipment, as well as by the growth of non-critical imports from $13 billion to $21 billion.

“Under such conditions, the ‘Made in Ukraine’ program and support for domestic producers is an absolutely necessary program and a set of programs, because we need to reduce import dependence and replace these imports with domestic producers,” Kravchenko says.

Estimates of Ukraine’s trade deficit for 2026 and 2027 differ in analysts’ forecasts and government documents. According to estimates by the ICU investment group, the trade deficit this year will grow to $87.4 billion (38.8% of GDP), and next year will decline to $74.3 billion (32.2% of GDP) due to a reduction in exports caused by the blocking of sea routes and the rapid growth of arms imports.

In the draft state budget for 2027, the Ministry of Finance forecasts a negative trade balance of $69.19 billion in 2026 and a further increase in the deficit to $79.66 billion in 2027 due to faster growth of imports.

On October 21, the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Budget Issues reviewed 5,236 amendments by people’s deputies to the draft state budget for 2027 and recommended that parliament adopt the bill in the first reading. In the committee’s conclusions, it is proposed not to pay the “National Cashback” within the framework of the program to support production and entrepreneurship and to review the expediency of financing the program from the state budget.