By the end of the year, the dollar in Ukraine could be worth 50 hryvnias — analyst forecast

The dollar exchange rate in Ukraine could rise to 50 hryvnias by the end of the year in the event of insufficient external financing.

This assessment was provided by financial analyst Oleksiy Kushch, the publication reports.

According to his forecast, with stable financing the dollar could be worth 46-48 UAH, while with insufficient assistance — 48-50 UAH.

“The IMF says that the National Bank’s foreign exchange reserves cannot be below 40 billion dollars. The NBU has about 10 billion dollars to curb the hryvnia’s fall, and it spends ~4 billion per month. Thus, the money will last for 2 months, and after that everything will depend on the inflow of funds from outside — otherwise the hryvnia devaluation process will be irreversible,” the economist said.

Thus, if external support stops entirely, the hryvnia faces significant devaluation. Kushch even allowed for a rate of up to 80 UAH per dollar in the event of a possible truce, but did not explain the specific conditions of such a scenario.

This week, the National Bank of Ukraine raised the official dollar exchange rate by almost 34 kopecks — to 45.5382 UAH/$, setting a new historic high for the American currency.

At the same time, in September the Cabinet of Ministers set an average dollar exchange rate of 47.1 UAH in its macroeconomic forecast for 2027, and 48.3 UAH for the end of the year.