Down to 25.2 million people: Ukraine’s population will shrink by half by 2051

By 2051, Ukraine’s population could decrease to 25.2 million people.

This information reported according to a forecast from the Institute of Demography and Social Research of the National Academy of Sciences (NAS), cited in the country’s Demographic Development Strategy for the period until 2040.

The last census in 2001 showed a population of 48.5 million. According to the Institute’s estimates, the population as of January 1, 2022, was 42 million. By July 2024, it had already dropped to 35.8 million, with only 31.1 million residing in territories controlled by Ukraine.

The forecast projects a further decline to 28.9 million by 2041, and by 2051, the population may shrink to 25.2 million. However, the Ukrainian government notes that making projections during wartime is challenging.

The government attributes the population decline to factors such as the ongoing war, migration, declining birth rates, rising mortality, aging, frequent premature deaths, a growing reluctance to have children, worsening health due to sedentary lifestyles, and the deteriorating quality of healthcare during the war.

It’s worth mentioning that UN experts predict Ukraine’s population could drop even further, to 15.3 million by the year 2100.

It was previously reported that the average life expectancy in Ukraine has significantly decreased. For men, it dropped from 66.4 years to 57.3 years, and for women, from 76.2 years to 70.9 years.