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August 22, 2024For Russia, regaining control of the territories in the Kursk region captured by Ukraine may be a “secondary task”.
In her view, Russia has a more important strategic objective: advancing in the Donetsk region.
Stanovaya believes that there is no significant panic in Moscow regarding the situation in the Kursk region. She suggests that Putin does not view the Ukrainian military’s offensive there as having a major impact on his broader strategic calculus.
At the core of this strategy is the “capture of the entire Donetsk region and, ultimately, the collapse of the Ukrainian government to facilitate negotiations on terms favorable to Russia.” As a result, Russian military forces are reluctant to get bogged down in an offensive on Kursk, which might require the use of a “scorched earth” strategy, similar to what was employed earlier in Avdiivka and Bakhmut.
Stanovaya further stated, “If he [Putin] doesn’t find a military solution, this could drag on for months or even years… And people in Moscow have already come to terms with this possibility,” reflecting on the potential long-term outlook for the situation in the Kursk region.