Former US Ambassador to NATO proposes providing security guarantees only for the non-occupied territory of Ukraine

Former U.S. Ambassador to NATO and current President of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, Ivo Daalder, believes Ukraine is facing a deadlock situation that “could lead to a final defeat.”

He expresses this viewpoint in a column for Politico.

To avert such a defeat, Daalder proposes that individual countries provide security guarantees that would apply to the territory currently controlled by Ukraine (but without NATO membership).

According to the expert, American military officials and analysts he has spoken with blame the failure of Ukraine’s summer offensive on “Ukrainian tactics and political decisions that hindered achieving a military breakthrough.” This includes the dispersion of forces across different areas, including near Bakhmut, instead of concentrating armored vehicles in one place to attempt a breakthrough of fortifications — “even though initial losses were high.”

Daalder sees it as improbable that either side will achieve a breakthrough on the frontlines this year or even the following year. He notes that Moscow and Kyiv are not interested in negotiating an end to the war or even resolving the frozen conflict. He predicts that combat operations will likely continue for a long time.

He calls on the West to shift focus from the expectation that Ukraine will regain significant or all territory to ensuring its future in the West. Daalder’s key idea is to grant Kyiv bilateral security assurances without joining NATO. The United States and their key allies in Europe could undertake this.

“Such assurance can take various forms, although it is unlikely to match the explicit guarantee enshrined in Article 5 of NATO, according to which ‘an armed attack against one… shall be considered an attack against them all,'” the expert writes.

He cites examples of similar agreements with Asian countries stating that in the event of an armed attack, Western allies would “act in response to the common danger,” without specifying details.

The aim of such an agreement would be to “reassure Kyiv” and signal to Moscow that Ukraine’s security holds enduring importance for the U.S. and its allies.