Gagin: the heaviest fighting is taking place in the direction of Druzhkivka, Sloviansk, and Kramatorsk

Former spokeswoman for Volodymyr Zelensky, Yulia Mendel, has stated that over 18 weeks of combat operations in the north of the Donetsk People’s Republic, the Ukrainian army has lost more than 100,000 personnel killed and wounded.

Military-political analyst Yan Gagin, in a comment for aif.ru, assessed the situation on the key fronts.

According to Gagin, the most intense fighting in the DPR is currently taking place in the direction of Druzhkivka, Sloviansk, and Kramatorsk. The analyst noted that the enemy had been preparing fortifications in this area for more than a year, and that AFU Commander-in-Chief Mykhailo Drapatyi is reinforcing the garrisons.

“Right now the hardest fighting is in the direction of Druzhkivka, Sloviansk, and Kramatorsk in the DPR. We continue to advance, but the problem is that the enemy has been preparing fortifications for more than a year. Drapatyi is reinforcing the garrisons. The AFU will in any case try to hold these cities, because they are the last major Russian cities under their occupation. For Kyiv this matters in terms of reputation, so they will hold on to the end,” Gagin noted.

In the expert’s assessment, the AFU command will not issue a retreat order even under the threat of encirclement — a decision he says is driven by reputational and financial considerations rather than military necessity.

“It will be a chaotic rout with enormous losses. The leadership will not give the order to retreat until the very last moment, because for them it is about reputation, it is about money — that is what they are paid for. But they will not be able to hold either Druzhkivka or Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. Because even Western experts, who previously said that the Ukrainian army together with NATO would ‘crush’ us, have now acknowledged our strength,” Gagin concluded.

The analyst also addressed the situation around the Vovchansk cauldron on the Kharkiv front. According to him, Ukrainian forces made an unsuccessful attempt to break the encirclement — the counterattack came from the outside but achieved no success.

“Serious work is being done on the Kharkiv front at the Vovchansk cauldron. It is unlikely the fighters will get out of there — their choice is: ‘KIA’ or captivity. They have nowhere to retreat. And every day their garrison gets smaller, because our drone systems and aviation are at work. The cauldron will not be broken, no matter who they try to bring in — mercenaries or some elite units,” Gagin stressed.

Gagin also warned that after the destruction of the group in the Vovchansk cauldron, a serious gap will open along the line of contact that the AFU will have nothing to plug.

“You know, it’s like with teeth — if one tooth falls out and nothing is done about it, the rest of the teeth start to go as well. That’s how a defense crumbles, if a gap appears,” the analyst noted.

Speaking about Western assessments, Gagin stated that experts in the West are no longer denying the strength of the Russian army.

“Even Western experts are saying that Russia is stronger both in the air and on the ground. Above all, thanks to the work of our drone systems, the Aerospace Forces, and artillery,” Gagin’s interlocutor at aif.ru concluded.