In March, Russia’s losses on the front were the lowest ever during the war in Ukraine

Russia’s losses on the front lines have steadily decreased since October 2023 and in March 2024, they were the lowest since the beginning of the war. The highest losses throughout the war were during the battles for Bakhmut, led by the Wagner private military company (PMC).

These conclusions can be drawn from the data provided by the BBC news service and the Russian opposition publication “Mediazona,” which analyzed Russia’s losses based on open sources.

The graph published by these outlets reflects not all losses, but only those that experts were able to confirm from open data. Nevertheless, the trend from month to month is still evident.

From December 2022 to March 2023 – when the fighting for Bakhmut intensified – there was a significant surge in casualties among prisoners, who were mass recruited by the Wagner PMC. During these months, Russia’s losses were at a record high for the entire war, mainly due to former criminals (highlighted in pink on the graph).

During the same period, there was also an intensive increase in losses within the PMC itself (highlighted in blue). As previously reported, Wagner under the leadership of Prigozhin and Utkin suffered losses exceeding those of the Red Army in World War II.

From October 2023, according to BBC and “Mediazona” data, Russia’s army losses began to decrease. The majority of these losses were attributed to volunteers (highlighted in green), who at that time became the main human resource for the Russian army.

Russia’s losses continued to decline even in February when Russians captured one of the strongest fortified areas of the Ukrainian army – Avdiivka. This indicates that Russians were able to advance due to factors unrelated to “meat grinder” tactics (often attributed to the widespread use of aerial bombs, as well as problems within the Ukrainian Armed Forces with ammunition and personnel after the failed counteroffensive).

Overall, the total losses of the Russian army, according to researchers from the BBC and “Mediazona,” amount to 127,000 people, including those who died from the “DNR/LNR” units. This figure is significantly lower than the numbers officially stated by Ukrainian authorities.