In this marketing year, Ukraine will reduce sunflower oil exports by 14%, according to the forecast

In the 2025/26 marketing year, Ukraine will export 14% less sunflower oil, with the volume expected to total 4.1 million tons.

This forecast was made by the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club Association.

“In the 2025/26 marketing year, sunflower oil exports will amount to 4.1 million tons, which is 14% less than in the previous marketing year,” the association said in a Facebook post.

UCAB notes that Ukraine remains a net exporter of sunflower oil, and in 2025 this product generated the highest export revenue among all agricultural goods.

Nevertheless, sunflower oil production in the 2025/26 marketing year is expected to reach 4.3 million tons, which is 13.1% lower than in the previous marketing year and 22.2% below the average for the past five years.

Analysts also point to a reduction in raw material for processing: in 2025/26, the total area planted with sunflower is estimated at 5.2 million hectares, which is 2.6% less than in the previous marketing year.

Difficult weather conditions, particularly insufficient rainfall, led to a drop in yield to 2.0 tons per hectare, which is 10.6% lower than in the previous marketing year.

“As a result, the sunflower seed harvest is expected to amount to 10.1 million tons, which is 10.6% less than in the previous marketing year and 13.5% below the five-year average,” UCAB explained.

A downward trend in oil production is also being observed: in the 2024/25 marketing year, sunflower oil production in Ukraine amounted to 5.0 million tons, which was 23.9% less than in the previous marketing year.

That significant decline was due to the unusually high production volumes in 2023/24, which resulted from large sunflower seed stocks accumulated because of restricted exports and the inability to freely export sunflower oil at the start of the war.

Because of the smaller sunflower seed harvest in 2025/26, raw material processing volumes are estimated at 10.1 million tons, so sunflower oil production will also decline to 4.3 million tons.

Meanwhile, domestic consumption of sunflower oil in Ukraine continues to fall due to the partial occupation of territories, forced population displacement, and military operations. In the 2025/26 marketing year, consumption is estimated at 240,000 tons, which is 2.0% lower than in the previous marketing year. Therefore, most of the product will be exported.

Despite lower sunflower yields and reduced processing volumes, sunflower oil remains one of Ukraine’s key export products on international markets, particularly in the EU, the Middle East, and Asia, the association noted.