Migration and mortality: Ukraine’s population could decrease to 25 million people

In the next 26 years, the population of Ukraine may decrease to 25.2 million.

This is reported by the Ministry of Social Policy citing data from the Institute of Demography.

According to the institute’s estimates, by 2041, the population of Ukraine may decrease to 28.9 million, and by 2051, to 25.2 million.

Due to the war, the average life expectancy in Ukraine has decreased from 66.4 years for men and 76.2 years for women in 2020 to 57.3 and 70.9 years respectively in 2023.

More than 6 million people, predominantly women and children, have been forced to leave the country. The birth rate has decreased by 45% since 2021.

The Ministry also listed the main demographic challenges and threats for Ukraine:

• Rapid population decline due to excess mortality over birth rates and massive labor migration;
• Low birth rate;
• Deterioration of the population’s health due to the inability to receive timely and quality medical care, insufficient disease prevention, numerous stresses, prolonged exposure to unfavorable conditions, leading to decreased immunity, exacerbation of old and new chronic diseases;
• Increase in the number of people with disabilities, including among children and youth, in need of comprehensive rehabilitation and support;
• High level of premature mortality, especially among men, associated with mass employment in hazardous and dangerous conditions, involvement in road traffic accidents, alcohol abuse, psychoactive substances, and smoking, insufficient public awareness of healthy lifestyle skills, low accessibility and quality of medical care in rural areas, low level of prosperity, and increased poverty;
• Mass forced emigration of the population;
• Illegal export of Ukrainian citizens abroad;
• Demographic aging;
• Massive internal population displacement.

In early 2024, it was reported that during the war, the birth rate in Ukraine had dropped to record low levels, with 187,387 children born in Ukraine in 2023.