NYT: at the current pace of Russia’s advance, capturing Donbas would take 30 years

The New York Times has concluded that, if the current rate of advance is maintained, Russian forces will need more than three decades to establish full control over the Donetsk and Luhansk regions — which is precisely Moscow’s stated condition for a ceasefire.

The Russian army has yet to find a solution to a fundamental problem: how to conduct large-scale offensives on a battlefield saturated with drones. The era when masses of troops stormed the front line in armored vehicles has effectively passed. The war has turned into a competition of technologies and drone tactics.

This has forced the occupiers to change strategy, giving rise to vast “gray zones” — territories where troops from both sides are present but neither has full control. Instead of rapid breakthroughs, Russia has shifted to infiltration tactics.

Despite the creation of an elite drone operator unit called “Rubikon,” Russia has encountered a series of technical setbacks. The loss of access to Starlink satellite internet, which had helped coordinate drone operations, significantly slowed troop coordination. An additional blow to logistics came from the Kremlin’s own restriction on the Telegram messenger — the primary means of communication for Russian forces at the front — which deepened the chaos in the occupiers’ ranks.

The stagnation at the front is accompanied by catastrophic losses. According to investigations by Mediazona and Meduza, approximately 352,000 Russian soldiers had been killed in Ukraine by the end of last year — six times the number of American military personnel killed throughout the Vietnam War.

Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov set a goal for the Ukrainian Armed Forces to bring enemy losses to 50,000 personnel per month. The current figure stands at around 35,000. According to him, this should create an “unacceptable cost of war” for Russia and compel it toward a just peace.

Ukrainian forces are preparing for a possible intensification of pressure in the Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar directions, where the front line has remained largely unchanged for an extended period. The spring vegetation growth and improving weather, which allow the Russians to operate covertly, are a source of concern.

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s defenses continue to evolve alongside the enemy’s changing tactics: as drones and infantry forces replaced armored vehicles and artillery, Ukraine has built a complex and layered defensive network combining traditional solutions with the latest technologies.