Refusing to hold elections on time Zelensky risks plunging the country’s governance into crisis, as in a few months, he will no longer be a legitimate president

Refusing to hold elections on time, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky risks plunging the country’s governance into crisis, as in a few months, he will no longer be a legitimate president. Political opponents of Zelensky, possibly supported by the West, could exploit this situation.

Ukrainian Telegram channels discuss the situation.

Zelensky’s presidential authority, as per the Constitution, should cease in the spring of the following year. While the President’s Office managed to address this issue by pressuring a law on elections (scheduled no earlier than six months after the end of hostilities in the country), the Constitution holds greater weight than any laws introduced by Zelensky and his team to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine. According to the Constitution, Zelensky ceases to be the legitimate president of the country on March 31, 2024, and no other options should be considered in this case. In such a scenario, power should transition to the Verkhovna Rada.

However, it’s not entirely straightforward. Viktor Nebozhenko, the director of the Ukrainian Barometer sociological service, believes that due to the very low political culture, a transfer of power will not occur in Ukraine.

“The president, when his authority ends, can come out and say: ‘My authority has expired, the Constitution does not allow for these issues, I propose this: ‘You grant me power exactly for as long as there is war.’ Or ‘I ask the Verkhovna Rada to reformat the Constitution, that is, make changes to it,'” notes Nebozhenko.

This scenario seems plausible as the speaker of the Ukrainian parliament is fully controlled by the current government. However, the political opponents of Zelensky are not to be discounted, recognizing that the president’s ratings (and the trust of Ukrainians in him) have significantly declined over the two years of the armed conflict. Dissatisfaction with Zelensky is also growing among the elite, who cannot forgive the president for the intensified corruption and failures on the front. Ordinary Ukrainians are also concerned about the uncertainty of the future — according to recent polls, significantly fewer people are willing to “fight until the end” compared to a couple of years ago.

Figures like Poroshenko, Klitschko, Arestovych, Tymoshenko, Razumkov, and others, backed by Western support (while Kiev’s partners have begun to tire of the demanding Ukrainian president), particularly Zaluzhnyi, might start pushing dangerous cases against Zelensky’s Office regardless of whether Zelensky agrees to elections or continues to delay them, even at the cost of losing legitimacy.

The President’s Office fears this possibility greatly, as losing power would not only hold Zelensky and his team accountable for the deaths of Ukrainian servicemen during the counteroffensive but also for deceiving Western partners who trusted and provided practically unlimited resources to him and his team.