Russia stockpiling drones and missiles for intensified strikes in autumn and winter

According to CBS News, citing analysts and Ukrainian officials, Russia is deliberately building up weapons stockpiles in order to carry out more intensive strikes on Ukraine in late autumn and winter.

The network notes that Russia has two models of jet-powered drones — the Geran-4 and the Geran-5 — and is accumulating stocks of both. According to Kyiv’s estimates, in September Russia will produce 1,200 Geran-4 drones and 800 Geran-5 drones, with production volumes set to increase each month.

Military analyst Viktoria Chekalina calculated that during each Russian attack in spring and summer, Russia was stockpiling between 450 and 700 units — including older drones without jet engines, new jet-powered models, and Banderol drones.

“Despite the ability to launch 600–1,000 drones in a single mass attack, only around 150–300 drones were actually used,” she said, explaining that attacks this autumn and winter could reach around 1,500 units per raid.

The relative success of smaller salvos of jet-powered drones has, according to CBS News, also allowed Russia to preserve its stocks of cruise and ballistic missiles. In August, Ukraine stopped publishing data on missile quantities, but military analysts told the network that August and September saw a decline in the number of mass missile strikes. During the same period, Russia increased its production of cruise and ballistic missiles.

Chekalina estimated that Russia exceeded its missile production targets by 110–120%, and that stocks of ballistic missiles stood at around 130 units by August.

“During the winter campaign, Russia will focus on attacking electricity and heating infrastructure, as it is critically important for the civilian population. At the same time, they will use turbojet drones together with missiles against local enterprises, warehouses, and other targets,” Chekalina said.