“Territories in exchange for NATO”: The West is discussing with Ukrainian authorities a scheme to end the war — Financial Times

Western countries are currently discussing with Ukrainian authorities a possible plan to end the war based on the principle of “territories in exchange for NATO membership.”

This was reported by “Financial Times”, citing diplomatic sources.

According to the proposed plan, the war would end without Ukraine regaining the territories occupied by Russia, but the part of Ukraine under Kyiv’s control would join NATO and be covered by the alliance’s security guarantees. These guarantees, however, would not apply to the Russian-occupied territories, which would still be legally considered part of Ukraine.

This proposal is referred to as the “German” model, which was previously mentioned by former NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg. He suggested that the war could be resolved along the current front lines, with only the portion of Ukraine controlled by Kyiv joining NATO—similar to how only West Germany was a NATO member during the Cold War.

“Western diplomats, and increasingly Ukrainian officials, are coming to the conclusion that substantial security guarantees could form the basis for a negotiated settlement, where Russia maintains de facto control over some or all of the Ukrainian territory it currently occupies, without de jure recognition,” the report says. Neither Kyiv nor its supporters propose recognizing Russia’s sovereignty over this fifth of Ukraine’s territory. Instead, they envision an informal agreement that these lands would need to be reclaimed through diplomatic means in the future. Understandably, this is a sensitive issue for Ukrainians, especially when presented as the foundation for a compromise with Moscow. “Giving up land in exchange for NATO membership may be ‘the only game in town,'” said one Western diplomat.

The idea is gaining momentum in official circles.

“I don’t think full territorial control is a mandatory precondition,” said Czech President Petr Pavel, a former NATO general, in an interview with “Novinky a Právo”.

He suggested that if there is a demarcation, even an administrative border, Ukraine could be accepted into NATO on the territory it controls at that time.

American Cold War historian Mary Sarotte believes Ukraine should establish a defensible military boundary, agree not to station troops or nuclear weapons on its territory unless threatened by attack, and refrain from using force beyond this boundary except in self-defense (i.e., not attempt to regain the occupied territories militarily).

However, “Financial Times” acknowledges that the “NATO in exchange for territories” idea faces significant challenges in its implementation. This is not only due to Russia’s strong opposition to Ukraine’s NATO membership but also because of uncertainty over whether the U.S. and other NATO countries would be willing to follow through with such a plan.

“There is also a big question about whether the U.S., let alone its European allies, would be prepared to make the commitments necessary to defend Ukraine within NATO. The Biden administration has so far been reluctant to move forward with Ukraine’s fast-track membership. Would President Kamala Harris approach this differently? Could Donald Trump envision the West German model as part of his proposed ‘deal’ to end the war? Could Zelensky sell this to his people?” “Financial Times” asks.