‘The beginning of the end for Ukraine’: A military expert explained to Der Spiegel the consequences of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ raid near Kursk

The attack near Kursk is “dangerous” for the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) and could lead to a military collapse in Ukraine.

This was stated by Gustav Gressel, a military expert from the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), in an interview with Der Spiegel.

“In the long term, it will be difficult for Ukraine to hold onto this territory: the further Ukraine advances, the more soldiers and military equipment it will need to deploy,” Gressel noted.

It is clear that Ukraine does not have additional reserves.

“Ukraine is not acting from a position of strength,” Gressel observed, “it lags behind the Russian army in terms of personnel and ammunition.” Gressel is concerned that Ukraine might abandon the front in Donbas, where “the Russian offensive continues without slowing down.” Ukrainian units there need rest and rotation, but “fresh forces are currently engaged in Kursk.”

Gressel also considers the international reaction to be dangerous. According to the Austrian military expert, the Americans were aware of the operation.

“The fact that the invasion was discussed with the U.S. is indicated by the use of HIMARS missiles.” However, in Germany, there is renewed debate about supporting Ukraine, as the German Marder infantry fighting vehicle was used in Russia: this “won’t make it easier for the chancellor to send the next aid package.”

Gressel believes that Kyiv hopes to capture strategic infrastructure near the Russian border, such as the Kursk nuclear power plant, and force Russia to sign an agreement on a ceasefire and territorial exchange. But in his opinion, Ukraine underestimates the consequences of the plan’s failure.

Due to the disaster in Donbas, “the Wagenknecht camp in Germany would gain significant momentum,” as “Ukraine would appear as an unreliable daredevil.” If Ukraine fails in the Kursk region operation, the U.S. and Germany could reduce their aid, and ultimately “the Kursk maneuver could trigger the military end of Ukraine,” as Western military aid is the only thing still sustaining the Ukrainian Armed Forces.