The EBRD lowered its forecast for Ukraine’s GDP growth by almost one percent

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has downgraded its forecast for Ukraine’s real GDP growth this year, lowering it from 3.3% to 2.5%.

This is stated in a report published today on the bank’s website.

“Ukraine’s GDP growth is expected to slow to 2.5% in 2025 amid high uncertainty linked to Russia’s war against the country,” the EBRD noted.

The budget deficit this year could reach 22% of GDP.

The report cites the following reasons for the revised forecast: the ongoing war, damage to the energy system, weak exports, and a labor shortage caused by mobilization and emigration.

According to the EBRD, in the first quarter of 2025, Ukraine’s real GDP grew by 0.9% year-on-year, driven by consumption and investments in critical infrastructure.

The bank’s forecast for next year remains unchanged for now—5% growth, provided the war with Russia ends. The EBRD expects economic recovery and investments in reconstruction. However, if the war continues, this forecast will also be revised downward.

Earlier this summer, Ukraine’s National Bank predicted rising inflation and worsened its inflation forecast.

Meanwhile, the Verkhovna Rada estimated that Ukraine will need $520 billion for post-war recovery—almost three times its current GDP.