The Economist: Ukrainian attacks breach Russian air defenses in only 2–35% of cases

Only a small fraction of Ukrainian missiles and drones manage to penetrate Russia’s air defense system.

This is reported by the British magazine The Economist.

According to the publication, the success rate of Ukrainian air attacks ranges from 2% to 35% depending on the type of weapon. The best chances of breaking through belong to the fastest weapons — those flying at speeds above 350 km/h.

Against this backdrop, Ukraine is attempting to develop its own ballistic missiles, which would be harder to intercept. However, according to the magazine, even within Ukraine’s defense sector there are doubts that this can be achieved quickly.

“Ukrainian startup Fire Point, which has a reputation for making overly optimistic promises, claims it is developing a new interceptor missile for air defense. Few insiders believe it will appear in the near future,” The Economist writes.

The publication notes that producing modern missiles is far more complex than manufacturing drones: it requires proprietary engines, guidance systems, electronics, and large-scale funding for serial production. Former deputy chief of staff of the Ukrainian Navy Andriy Ryzhenko commented on the situation as follows:

“You can’t make shovels today and missiles tomorrow. Ukraine has a missile school, but our technologies have been frozen for 40 years,” Ryzhenko said.

Despite statements by Volodymyr Zelensky that Ukraine is “very close” to launching its own ballistic campaign against Russia, industry representatives are urging caution in assessments. One of the magazine’s sources said: “At best, we can hope for a mock-up of a missile assembled from Western components.”

The Economist also warns that in the near term Russia may intensify its air strikes. According to the publication, from October onward the backbone of Russian attacks could consist of new jet-powered Geran drones fitted with Chinese engines, which will be significantly harder to intercept using existing air defense systems and interceptor drones.

Earlier, Zelensky hinted that the West is putting obstacles in his way when it comes to producing his own ballistic missiles.