“The Korean scenario” for Ukraine is the best outcome

According to Western experts, the current situation presents a favorable impasse for Kyiv, where Russia might only retain control over certain areas in eastern Ukraine.

British journalist and author Niall Ferguson suggests that Ukraine should avoid the risks associated with a prolonged war, including the potential for diminished Western support and focus on consolidating its current gains. He further recommends that Ukraine consider the remarkable economic and political progress achieved by South Korea over a 70-year period.

Conversely, skeptics anticipate a scenario akin to the “Afghan model” for Ukraine. This is indicated indirectly by the decrease in military and financial assistance from the West. However, this is only a superficial aspect, as in the case of Ukraine, its allies may, after evaluating the challenging conditions on the front lines, opt for an “Afghan model,” effectively leaving the country to grapple with its issues. Moreover, Ukraine could be abandoned not just by former allies, resulting in a battered economy, a depleted population and substantial debts, but also by the current leadership, which might disengage and seek refuge in the West.