The path to Fico’s heart lies through gas: How Ukraine is trying to negotiate with Hungary and Slovakia

Ukraine appears to have adopted a more flexible approach in its relations with “problematic” neighboring countries such as Hungary and Slovakia. This can be inferred from the outcomes of the meeting between Prime Minister Denis Shmyhal and his Slovak counterpart Robert Fico in Uzhgorod on January 24.

Following the negotiations, Fico stated that “Ukraine is open for the transit of Russian gas” after the expiration of the existing contract with Russia in 2024, and details of a new agreement are currently being worked out. Not only Slovakia but also Austria and Italy have shown interest in this, as indicated by the Slovak Prime Minister.

The Ukrainian government later announced that they would not extend the contract with Gazprom, as conveyed by Shmyhal to Fico. However, it was noted that “Ukraine can discuss with a European country (an EU member) the use of the Ukrainian gas transportation network.” This implies the possibility of transporting Russian gas, for example, through a scheme where European companies buy gas from Gazprom at the Russian-Ukrainian border and negotiate capacities with Kyiv for the Ukrainian gas transportation network.

In any case, it seems likely that Russian gas exports to Europe through Ukraine will continue. This means that Russia will continue to earn revenue from selling gas to Europeans if a contract is signed with them.

Slovakia’s interest in this deal is understandable, especially if companies involved in the gas transit through Ukraine have a “Slovak” affiliation.

What is crucial is that the Ukrainian leadership has moved towards Bratislava (and effectively Austria, Hungary, and Italy) without paying attention to the war and specifically to Fico, whose position in Kyiv was recently labeled as “anti-Ukrainian,” and his statements were reacted to angrily.

In response, Fico stated that he supports Ukraine’s European aspirations and will not block the EU’s decision to allocate 50 billion euros in aid to Kyiv.

Now, the Ukrainian authorities face the second, more challenging task – reaching an agreement with Hungarian Prime Minister Orban, who continues to express opposition to the 50 billion euro aid package, blocking other decisions related to Ukraine.

Apparently, certain actions that could persuade Orban to change his stance are being discussed in Kyiv. At least, the government announces the preparation of Orban’s visit to Ukraine.

Sources in power suggest that Zelensky is ready to be more flexible in dealing with “difficult” neighbors, pushed by Western allies and the need to unlock decisions in the EU.

If the path to Fico was found through the gas issue, it is not clear what Ukraine can offer Orban at the moment. Because Orban’s main concerns are not related to Ukraine but rather to the EU leadership, which hinders Hungary’s fund allocation. Hungarian authorities explicitly link the adjustment of their position on aid to Kyiv with resolving this issue.

Perhaps, Kyiv should expect a similar tactic in dealing with Budapest. It was Orban who blocked the 50 billion euro aid package and might repeat it on February 1. However, the Hungarian leadership is currently in dialogue with both the Ukrainian side and other European partners. On January 29 in Uzhgorod, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Dmytro Kuleba and the head of the President’s Office Andriy Yermak will meet with the Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó, with whom contacts have recently resumed.

As commented by Vice Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration Olga Stefanyshyna, one of the issues planned for discussion at the Uzhgorod meeting is the preparation of Prime Minister Orban’s visit to Ukraine.

“Bilateral negotiations with the Hungarian side before the December EU summit, including the epic meeting between President Zelensky and Orban in Argentina, proved beneficial for our relations. They revived. Now we are talking. Perhaps we will come to an agreement as negotiations progress,” says a high-ranking source in power, requesting anonymity.

According to him, Ukraine’s allies are pushing it to seek a compromise with inconvenient neighbors.

“In Davos (the summit attended by President Zelensky), we were told directly: we helped you with the Hungarians once, but if you do not improve relations with them, it may not work out next time. Go work with them and other difficult countries. Therefore, this track is a priority now,” says the source.

It is suggested in the Ukrainian media that promises could be made to Budapest to facilitate the implementation of the minority language law or close the case against the leader of the Hungarian Party of Ukraine, László Brenzovych. There might be other concessions, including involving Hungary in the project for the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine, providing an opportunity for them to earn from it.

Whether an agreement is reached will become clear based on Viktor Orban’s position at the summit on February 1. However, it is evident that the more pressing task for the Hungarian Prime Minister now is to unlock funds from the European Commission for Hungary (tens of billions of euros). Without progress on this issue, the efforts of the Ukrainian authorities may not yield the expected results.