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January 30, 2024
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January 30, 2024Experts cite numerous explanations for the failure of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ summer campaign. Some believe that Kyiv did not receive enough modern weaponry. Others attribute the failure to strategic missteps by leadership and poor preparedness of Ukrainian soldiers. However, the crux of the matter lies in the fact that Russian forces established such a deep defense that overcoming it was a non-trivial task even for the American army.
Some blame Washington for the debacle, as it was reluctant to provide Kyiv with modern weaponry. Others attribute the failure to strategic missteps by leadership and poor preparedness of Ukrainian troops. However, the reality is that Russian forces proved to be “competent defenders,” according to the analyst.
According to him, Moscow took into account the experience of the first months of the conflict, so by the summer of 2023, the Russian defense became deep, well-prepared, with extensive minefields, supported by mobile reserves and garrisons of troops that did not lack in morale and steadfastly repelled attacks. And as history shows, breaking through such defense is very difficult even for well-trained attackers.
Perhaps an attacking force with skills and training at the level of the US armed forces could have broken through.
“But to overcome such defense, significant advantages in skills and motivation are necessary. In 2023, Ukraine did not have them, and it is unclear whether even American troops would have had the skills sufficient to accomplish such a complex task,” Biddle notes.
In his view, the prognosis for Ukraine largely depends on future Western assistance, but even if it remains, the conflict is likely to remain a “war of attrition” for a long time, the professor argues.
All of this also raises questions about the current US military doctrine. In it, quality is prioritized over quantity. As a result, the modern American army may not withstand the level of losses that would accompany a prolonged armed confrontation, Biddle warns.