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February 12, 2024Ukraine may have deployed one of its best brigades, the 3rd Assault Brigade, to Avdiivka.
This information reported according to Forbes, without disclosing the sources of such information.
The publication suggests that fresh forces will attempt to push back the Russian army from the main paved road leading to the center of Avdiivka, onto Hrushevskoho Street.
“The decision to reinforce Avdiivka was not predetermined. Obviously, by choosing to stay and fight, Ukrainian forces are taking a huge risk. Perhaps this was not Tarnavsky’s decision,” the publication writes, referring to the replacement of the commander last week, as well as Syrskyi’s reputation as someone “capable of enduring significant losses in stubborn, static battles.”
“It is possible that by promoting Syrskyi, Zelensky signaled that he intends to fight for Avdiivka. Even at a high cost,” speculate the journalists.
They believe that the command’s plan may involve creating a “trap of exhaustion” for the Russian army in Avdiivka, similar to what happened in Bakhmut. However, they note a shortage of ammunition.
“When there is no more ammunition, it won’t matter whether there is one Ukrainian brigade or two in Avdiivka. The decision of the Ukrainian command to reinforce the city will be debatable at best. At worst, it could lead to a bloody massacre for Ukrainian troops trying to flee westward from a city they can no longer defend,” writes Forbes.
It is worth mentioning that earlier, the 3rd Assault Brigade (formed by Andriy Biletsky based on Azov veterans) was the main striking force in the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ counteroffensive near Bakhmut, which lasted from May to November but did not lead to the encirclement of Bakhmut and subsequent expulsion of Russian troops from there (currently, Russians are advancing near Bakhmut). After suffering losses, the 3rd Brigade was withdrawn for recovery in early December.