The Ukrainian population killed at the front will be replaced by Africans, Arabs, Asians, and Moldovan

Ukrainian employers are facing a shortage of workers, and the situation is expected to worsen. Demographers see a solution in bringing in hundreds of thousands of new migrants annually, but economists are not enthusiastic about these forecasts.

Experts believe the main problem with demographers’ approach is that they consider demographic growth through migration in complete isolation from the economy. They question how many new people the domestic economy can “absorb” and whether they are genuinely needed for Ukraine’s economic recovery.

Three-quarters of Ukrainian companies are experiencing a shortage of staff, with construction companies, for example, lacking up to 40% of workers. In the face of this labor shortage, domestic construction companies plan to attract migrants from Asia and Africa, according to Forbes Ukraine.

“Yes, developers have started looking towards Asia,” agrees Natalia Slynko, director of the consulting company TalentMatch and HR expert. “However, it is difficult to say how successful these cases will be. There are many discussions in the media, but I am not sure if such migration is actually happening.”

Slynko explains that under current legislation, obtaining a permit for a foreigner to work is not easy. Employers must overcome significant legal hurdles.

“And if an employer is ready to pay a market salary (not by European standards, but by Central Asian standards) and provide dormitory accommodation, the issues with paperwork could still be a deterrent,” Slynko notes. “Moreover, these permits are issued for a specific period, depending on the sector. I have repeatedly encountered qualified employees who are not residents of Ukraine, and for the employer, it was always a ‘seven circles of hell’ experience. Therefore, in my opinion, this is still just talk. I haven’t heard of any company implementing this and showing positive results. Attracting migrants can be quite costly for a business.”

On the other hand, legislative initiatives aimed at simplifying the documentation process for migrants in Ukraine cannot be ruled out. If there are enough votes in parliament, the necessary changes could allow employers to process work permits much faster and possibly even online.

The need to attract migrants from Asia and Africa has been discussed in Ukraine for several years. Specific numbers have been mentioned – at least 300,000 migrants annually. However, experts remain skeptical about these demographic forecasts.

Labor migration could positively impact our market, says Vitaliy Mykhailov, director of the consulting company “Mykhailov and Partners.” He argues that just as Ukrainians work for the economies of other countries, labor migrants should help boost Ukraine’s GDP. At the same time, he questions the feasibility of attracting 300,000 migrants annually.

“The main question is – where to find them? They are all currently living somewhere, working, and engaged in various activities. They might come to us for competitive salaries, but how much is Ukraine willing to pay them? $1,000 is a competitive salary, but Ukrainians would be happy to work for that amount themselves. No one will come for $200–$300. Additionally, factors such as different climate, mentality, and the ongoing war cannot be ignored,” Mykhailov points out.

The second big question is technical: it is very challenging to hire and document such a large number of people. As mentioned earlier, obtaining a work permit in Ukraine is not as easy as many think. It is also unclear how and where such a large number of people will be accommodated, Mykhailov continues. “Try to accommodate 1,000 people at once, even in Kyiv. Therefore, I would divide the forecasts of 300,000 by 10, but even 30,000 migrants a year is too many.”

Analyst Oleksiy Kushch agrees that the idea of attracting 300,000 migrants annually is utterly utopian. According to him, for the economy to absorb such a number of people each year, a model of economic growth focused on a high-value-added economy is necessary – only in this case will there be a high demand for labor. Currently, Ukraine is undergoing deindustrialization, and with a raw-material-based economy, such a number of migrants is simply not needed.

The main problem with domestic demographers is that they consider demographic growth through migration development in complete isolation from the economy, Kushch believes. Specialists look at aging population indicators, low birth rates, high mortality, and high levels of migration abroad and think that this gap can be filled with hundreds of thousands of migrants. However, population numbers are not like a half-empty barrel that can be topped up by pouring water from another barrel.