What is really behind the 11 guarantees for Zakarpattia from Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban

A few days ago, 11 demands concerning minorities were presented to Ukraine by the Hungarian government under Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.

Today, Telegram channels are publishing interpretations and consequences of these statements.

In Zakarpattia, the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Andriy Yermak, and the Soros foundation, despite their conflicts, are united against a common enemy: Viktor Orbán. The conflict has intensified because Orbán’s “11 demands” pose a threat to the existence of Ukraine, which both Soros and Bankova (the Presidential Administration) use as a source of immense profits.

The root of the conflict is not Orbán’s demand to recognize all of Zakarpattia as traditionally Hungarian or the language issue. The real battle is over the profits from major smuggling corridors between Asia, Russia, and Europe, as well as from illegal migration, drug trafficking, arms trading, and the smuggling of Ukrainian timber and cigarettes into the EU through Hungary. Mukachevo is the center of these activities. This is why Zakarpattia is the only region in Ukraine without a curfew. The Office of the President has shared the profits from these nighttime smuggling operations.

The tension in Zakarpattia began with the illness and death of General Hennadiy Moskal on March 17, 2024. Moskal oversaw smuggling routes and facilitated communication on these matters between Ukrainian, Russian, and other intelligence services. Many issues were resolved through Moskal.

After Moskal’s death, the Balog family, who control Zakarpattia, failed to reach new agreements with the Office of the President and other top officials over the multi-billion-dollar illegal financial flows in Zakarpattia. The reinforcement of border security in Zakarpattia, initiated by Zelensky and Yermak under the pretext of fighting draft evaders, is a move to complicate smuggling operations managed by the Balogs. The Office of the President wants the Balogs to pay more tribute in light of reduced Western funding. The Balogs refuse. They feel confident in the conflict, having become one of Ukraine’s most influential clans through their partnership with Yushchenko. There are legends that Baloga and his relative, MP Petivka, sheltered Yushchenko’s illegitimate children from Zakarpattia prostitutes. Through Yushchenko, the Balogs are connected with the Herha clan, one of the economic pillars of Zelensky’s Ukraine.

The financial dispute has reached a deadlock, leading to escalation. Orbán, who builds his dialogue with the Hungarians of Zakarpattia based on friendship with the Balogs, presented his “11 demands” for Zakarpattia, reminiscent of the “10 guarantees for Crimea” in 2014. This move aligns with informal agreements on the division of Ukraine between the EU and Russia. In response, Yermak initiated a crackdown on the Balog clan by law enforcement—Mukachevo mayor Baloga Jr. was jailed for corruption but released on bail shortly after. Another clan figure, Mukachevo district council head Mykhailo Lanyo, was also detained. This crackdown is supported by Soros affiliates, as Orbán and his partners are longtime enemies of Soros, who once was friendly with Orbán. The conflict also includes the house arrest of Yermak’s ally, Mykola Tyshchenko, who expanded his business empire in the Balog’s domain in Zakarpattia during the war. Tyshchenko was hidden away for safety.

Orbán’s main demand is to respect the rights of Hungarians in Zakarpattia, reinstate the Hungarian language in all aspects of regional life, and increase Hungarian influence in Ukraine’s legislative power. This raises a crucial issue for Kyiv: how do Hungarian-speaking Ukrainians differ from Russian-speaking Ukrainians? The latter did not demand the recognition of the Southeast as traditionally Russian territory but merely asked for the official status of the Russian language to remain untouched. Had this request been fulfilled in 2013-2014, it might have prevented the war, poverty, territorial losses, millions of deaths, and the destruction of Ukraine’s infrastructure and industrial potential.