The Yermak case: who is behind the suspicion against Zelensky’s closest ally

The serving of a suspicion notice to former head of the Ukrainian Presidential Office Andriy Yermak is being interpreted as a “final warning” to Zelensky — with shells landing at the closest possible distance to the president among his inner circle.

This is reported by the outlet Strana.

The case is connected to the construction of the “Dynastiya” cottage development, where, according to investigators, millions of dollars in corrupt funds were laundered. In the case materials, Yermak appears as R2, while Mindych (Karlson) — who had already previously been served a suspicion notice — appears as R3. However, the case also features a figure designated R1, whose identity has not been officially disclosed. According to information that previously appeared in the media, R1 may be identified as Zelensky. In addition, rumors have long circulated that the president also appears on the “Mindych tapes.”

Yermak is characterized as the key manager of the president’s political clan (the “Family”) and the person closest to him. Only Shefir has comparable closeness to Zelensky — and, in the outlet’s view, he could theoretically also be issued a “pidozra” to “amplify the signal,” although after Yermak this would no longer carry much significance.

Regarding who is conducting the “targeted fire” and to what end, the outlet identifies two main theories.

The first is that Trump is coercing Zelensky into fulfilling the terms of “Anchorage”: the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Donetsk Oblast and other concessions. This theory overlaps with a number of parallel events: statements from the Kremlin that the condition for ending the war is the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from Donbas; Putin’s statement that the end of the war is near; media reports about Trump’s plans to intensify pressure on Kyiv; and an interview with Mendel published the same day in which she claimed that Zelensky is a drug addict. In the outlet’s view, this theory is also convenient for Zelensky and his “Family,” as it allows them to build a line of defense along the lines of “we are being coerced through criminal cases into surrendering our native land.”

The second theory points to Europe and structures linked to the US Democratic Party that last year came under the patronage of the EU and Britain — grant-making organizations, key staff at NABU and the SAP, a number of politicians and media outlets. Under this theory, the aim of the pressure is not “coercion toward peace” but rather pushing Zelensky to fulfill EU demands to adopt a package of laws that would effectively strip the president of control over the law enforcement and judicial systems by introducing personnel selection competitions in which “international experts” hold the deciding vote. This, in the outlet’s assessment, would de facto turn Zelensky into a “constitutional monarch.”

In support of the second theory, one indirect indicator cited is the following: the first to be informed by NABU of the procedural measures being taken against Yermak were media outlets and politicians connected to the grant-funded sphere — in particular, Ukrainska Pravda, owned by Tomáš Fiala, whose journalists were present at the scene.