Ukraine exhausts its cheap gasoline reserves: expert warns of ‘tense period’

Ukraine has exhausted its own reserves of cheap gasoline, and fuel prices at filling stations have begun to rise.

This was stated by Sergei Kuyun, director of the consulting company A-95, on the air of Novosti.Live.

According to Kuyun, for nearly three weeks Ukrainian filling stations held prices steady thanks to previously accumulated reserves purchased at lower cost. Global oil prices began rising at the start of July, but this was only reflected at Ukrainian filling stations almost three weeks later — that is exactly how long the available reserves lasted.

“There are no gasoline reserves. Strikes on infrastructure are not just oil depots and refineries — they are already destroying filling stations. Many people complained that prices were rising so fast in the spring — but where was the stockpile? The rise in global prices began at the start of July, but at our filling stations they only started rising yesterday. That means we held on for almost three weeks precisely thanks to reserves that were cheaper. But those reserves are now exhausted. We will be working entirely hand-to-mouth, and given high demand, a very tense period awaits us,” the expert warned.

Kuyun also pointed to risks in the fuel supply logistics. According to him, a significant portion of fuel is purchased at European ports — meaning it is imported from third countries via Europe. At the same time, neighboring states have already set precedents for restricting supplies.

“We purchase a lot of fuel at ports — that is, we import it from third countries through European ports. For example, in March there was a precedent when Poland cut off our supplies, and Romania did too. I think another test awaits us. It is likely that it will be difficult to purchase fuel from our traditional suppliers. We will have to look for it in more distant regions and try to deliver it here,” the specialist suggested.

At the same time, the expert does not consider a fuel shortage inevitable. Kuyun recalled that Ukraine survived 2022 and a harsh winter, and expressed confidence that fuel would be found — the only question is the price.

“We survived 2022, we survived a very difficult winter. We will find fuel — the question is the price. We will simply need to offer much more than, say, the Poles,” the expert concluded.

Over the weekend, average fuel prices at Ukrainian filling stations rose by between 1.4% and 2.2%. Premium A-95 gasoline rose by 1.74 hryvnias (+2.2%) to 80.73 hryvnias per liter. Regular A-95 rose by 1.5 hryvnias (+2%) to 76.57 hryvnias per liter, and diesel fuel rose by 1.7 hryvnias (+2.2%) to 78.8 hryvnias per liter.

On the global market, Brent crude oil rose 2% on July 20 and exceeded approximately €79 per barrel. American West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2.07% to $84.2 per barrel.