Ukrainian agrarians warn of wave of bankruptcies due to port blockade

The All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council (AUAC) has appealed to the government with a call to urgently support the sector amid a crisis caused by attacks on port infrastructure and disruptions to maritime exports.

Without anti-crisis measures, the agricultural sector could face unprofitable production, a wave of bankruptcies, and a breakdown of the production cycle, the association warned on July 28.

The AUAC represents the interests of more than 1,400 small and medium-sized agricultural enterprises in Ukraine. In its appeal to the government, the association emphasizes that the challenges currently facing the agricultural sector are, taken together, significantly more dangerous and severe in their consequences than even those of 2022.

“A crisis of production unprofitability is rapidly closing in on the agricultural sector, and it will have a negative multiplier effect on the entire economy,” the AUAC’s appeal states.

According to AUAC experts, in the 2026/2027 marketing year, production of major grain and oilseed crops will amount to approximately 81.4 million tonnes, and taking into account carry-over stocks, the total volume of goods available for consumption and export will reach approximately 85 million tonnes. Ukraine needs to export around 67 million tonnes of agricultural products. However, if seaports cease operations, export capacity could shrink to 1.7 million tonnes per month, leading to a surplus of goods on the domestic market.

A prolonged blockade of seaports threatens to create a commodity surplus of between 27.4 and 32.4 million tonnes of agricultural products, which will weigh on the market throughout the entire marketing year. According to the association, purchasing prices have already begun to fall sharply due to traders halting procurement — in some cases dropping to 7,000 hryvnias per tonne, which is below the full cost of production.

“The situation demands immediate action. This is not an ordinary seasonal deterioration in market conditions, but a risk of a breakdown in the production cycle in one of the key sectors of the Ukrainian economy,” the AUAC stressed.

What the AUAC is proposing

In its appeal to the government, the AUAC outlined a specific package of anti-crisis measures:

— introduce preferential lending to replenish working capital ahead of the autumn planting season;
— restructure existing agricultural loans;
— provide state guarantees on loans and revise certain terms of the “5–7–9%” program;
— conduct an audit of damage to port infrastructure in Greater Odessa and the Danube ports;
— identify priority facilities for restoration and direct funding toward the repair and modernization of transshipment capacity.

Context: strikes on ports and shipowners’ response

Despite constant attacks, Ukrainian seaports handled 42.4 million tonnes of cargo in the first half of 2026 — 6% more than in the same period of 2025, when approximately 40 million tonnes passed through Ukrainian ports. In 2026, Russia has been striking Ukraine’s port infrastructure on average every five days, and the intensity of strikes increased in July.

Following a missile strike on July 19 that hit a vessel carrying corn and killed 10 sailors, shipowners temporarily suspended vessel calls carrying agricultural products to Ukraine’s Black Sea ports. On July 21, operator Maersk announced that it had temporarily suspended service on its route to Ukraine via the Black Sea fishing port due to the current situation.