Only 2% of the required gas volume remains in Ukraine’s underground storage facilities: can Ukraine survive without critically important fuel imports?

Ukraine has ended the heating season with record-low natural gas reserves in its underground storage facilities, raising serious concerns ahead of preparations for the next winter.

This was reported by Reuters.

According to Serhiy Makogon, former head of Ukraine’s gas transmission system operator, the country will need to import up to 6.3 billion cubic meters of gas to avoid an energy collapse during the 2025–2026 winter season.

Makogon noted that as of April 16, 2025, gas reserves had dropped to just 0.7 billion cubic meters, or 2.22% of the total storage capacity—the lowest level on record. This reflects a deep structural energy crisis in the country.

One of the main causes for the sharp decline in gas volumes is the intensification of Russian attacks, which have severely damaged gas production and infrastructure in eastern Ukraine. As a result, Ukrainian authorities were forced to draw down reserves rapidly while increasing imports.

According to Makogon, to ensure Ukraine makes it through the next heating season, the country will need to accumulate at least 12.8 billion cubic meters of gas. Of this, 4.6 billion cubic meters are needed solely for technical purposes—to maintain stable system pressure and ensure the gas transmission system operates properly. The remaining 8.2 billion cubic meters must be available for actual consumption—by both households and industries.

Domestic production will only partially meet these needs, Makogon estimates. Therefore, Ukraine will need to import between 5.5 and 6.3 billion cubic meters, making the upcoming winter a true test of the country’s energy resilience.

The Ukrainian government now faces the urgent task of securing reliable gas supply routes and financing the necessary purchases, which will likely be made at market prices. Given the limited potential of domestic extraction and reliance on foreign suppliers, Ukraine could face price shocks and logistical challenges, particularly as the war continues.

Observers also warn that in the event of a cold winter and increased demand for gas in Europe, competition for energy resources may intensify, further complicating Ukraine’s efforts to secure the required volumes.