Ukraine’s defense is falling apart before our eyes: drones, exhausted infantry, and command failure

The Armed Forces of Ukraine are rapidly losing combat capability amid a catastrophic situation on the front lines. Infantry is demoralized, defensive lines are eroding, and Russian drones are effectively paralyzing logistics.

This is the assessment of military expert Michael Kofman, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

According to Kofman, Ukrainian defenses have effectively turned into a “porous network” of isolated resistance pockets, separated by large gaps. This allows Russian assault groups to penetrate deep into Ukrainian rear areas and establish footholds, rendering the very concept of a “front line” meaningless.

“Positions are being held by exhausted fighters in small units that often have no communication with each other,” writes Kofman.

Ukrainian infantry is worn out and incapable of maneuver. Constant air and artillery strikes prevent troop rotations — soldiers remain at the front for more than 90 consecutive days, and reaching positions may require days of walking. This is not just exhaustion — it is a systemic collapse.

Kofman notes that the situation is worsened by a political directive to ‘hold every meter’, even when positions are encircled or lack strategic value. Command often chooses senseless defense with heavy losses over preserving manpower by retreating to stronger positions.

While Ukrainian units deteriorate, Russia is adapting to a long war. Its advantage in drone warfare has surged: no longer a scattered effort, it is now a centralized system — typified by the “Rubikon” program — delivering strikes across the front. Russian UAVs not only target objectives but also disrupt Ukrainian supply lines, undermining even basic operational resilience.

Large-scale Russian offensives have been replaced by smaller, more precise operations, wearing down Ukrainian forces and laying the groundwork for sudden breakthroughs. Kofman warns that territorial changes are occurring in a pattern: “gradually — then suddenly”, potentially leading to a collapse of the front.

Ukraine’s air defense is also failing to keep up. While technical countermeasures against Shahed drones exist, there are no resources to deploy them effectively. Promised command reforms have been delayed, and newly formed corps are being assembled hastily from improvised elements — real command and control remains elusive.

Despite isolated successes in ground drone operations, Ukraine is losing in key technological areas — especially in long-range strike systems and those with ranges up to 300 km. Efforts to fill ammunition gaps have largely failed, and many military initiatives remain stuck on paper.

Kofman’s conclusion is stark: the Ukrainian army is exhausted, operating on the brink, and facing growing Russian superiority on all fronts. Under such conditions, stabilization is no longer a realistic goal — the situation is not just worsening, it is dangerously close to a point of no return.