A chance for peace: what does Trump’s victory mean for Ukraine?

Donald Trump, having won the U.S. presidential election, made the conflict in Ukraine a central theme of his campaign. He frequently accused the current president, Joe Biden, of potentially leading the U.S. into World War III.

Trump asserted that if he were president, Vladimir Putin would not have dared to invade Ukraine and promised to end the conflict within 24 hours. Trump’s advisers, including vice-presidential candidate J.D. Vance, proposed a concrete plan of action that would include halting hostilities along the current front line, recognizing Russian-occupied territories, and refusing Ukraine’s NATO membership.

However, based on his first term as president, not all of Trump’s declarations and promises were realized. Thus, it is worth examining possible changes for Ukraine should Trump return to power.

If the U.S. decides to stop the conflict along the front line, there is an 80% chance this could become reality. Ukraine and Europe are significantly influenced by Washington’s stance. However, negotiating conditions acceptable to both Ukraine and Russia could be complex but not impossible. Ukraine, reliant on U.S. assistance, would have to consider American demands. On the other hand, Russia could be pressured through China and other countries interested in a swift resolution of the conflict. The key in this scenario is the U.S. position and its genuine willingness to seek an end to the war.

However, such a policy is not guaranteed. Until a new president’s inauguration, Biden’s administration would remain in power and could take actions complicating any potential settlement. Within the Republican Party itself, there are different factions, some of which may advocate a hardline stance on Russia, using the conflict in Ukraine as leverage to achieve U.S. economic and strategic objectives.

At the same time, some members of Trump’s circle view the war in Ukraine as “bad business” for the U.S. due to the risks of escalation, rising national debt, and other factors. They might attempt to persuade Trump to pursue a peaceful resolution to the conflict.

It is difficult to predict what influence different forces will have on Trump and what decisions he will ultimately make. Should a Trump administration offer Russia a peace settlement, the Kremlin’s response and possible terms could influence future developments.

Trump’s return to power could also alter U.S.-EU relations, affecting Ukraine. Disagreements in economic and defense matters could impact U.S. and EU strategic focus, creating opportunities for Russia and China.

Overall, it remains unclear what policy Trump would adopt regarding Ukraine. Nevertheless, his potential presidency could offer a chance for a peaceful resolution to the conflict, potentially bringing relief to the Ukrainian people who continue to suffer and endure devastation.