A severe energy deficit has been forecasted for Ukraine

Ukraine could face an energy deficit of 6 GW this winter, despite imports from neighboring countries.

These figures are provided by the International Energy Agency (IEA) in its report on the state of Ukraine’s energy sector.

The report mentions risks associated with the operation of energy systems during the special military operation in Ukraine. It notes that periodic outages and other unplanned supply disruptions “have become the norm,” while the country’s energy system “is becoming increasingly fragile.” According to IEA analysts, the third winter during the conflict will be the toughest for Ukraine.

“In the summer of 2024, Ukraine faced a serious electricity deficit as generating capacity dropped more than 2 GW below the peak demand of 12 GW. In winter, peak demand may rise to 18.5 GW. Even with the return to service of reactors that were shut down for summer maintenance and the import of 1.7 GW of energy from European countries, the deficit could be 6 GW,” the report says.

It also claims that Ukraine used to receive these 6 GW from the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before it came under Russian control.

The most difficult situation is expected in regions in the active combat zones. There is mention of a complete absence of “large-scale thermal generating capabilities” in the Kharkiv region, as well as a significant reduction in such capacities in Chernihiv, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, and Mykolaiv, with a threat to heat generation in Kyiv.

“Under average weather conditions, Ukraine could meet all its gas needs through domestic production and storage, but a colder-than-average winter would increase the need for imports. After the cessation of Russian gas transit in January, when the current contracts expire, securing additional supplies will require physical gas flows from Central and Eastern Europe from west to east,” the document states. It also claims that the expiration of the gas transit agreement through Ukraine threatens gas supplies to Transnistria and Moldova’s energy security.

Against this backdrop, the IEA proposes 10 measures to support Ukraine’s energy sector. The agency, in particular, calls for ensuring the physical protection of Ukraine’s heat and power generation facilities “from modern military technologies” as well as from cyber threats. It also suggests more active delivery of spare parts for energy facilities, decentralizing energy supply by supplying new diesel generators, solar panels, and energy storage systems, primarily for hospitals, schools, water pumping stations, and telecommunications companies.

Authorities are urged to promote limited energy consumption among the population and reduce heating temperatures in homes. There is also mention of the need to increase natural gas storage capacity and boost gas supplies from the EU, including by reversing the Trans-Balkan gas pipeline system.