Due to the Polish blockade, Ukraine will lose 1 percent of GDP

Ukraine faces mounting economic losses due to the ongoing protests staged by Polish truckers. The blockade, continuing for several weeks, is predicted to slash Ukraine’s overall imports by approximately 20% in November. If these blockades persist, they could potentially shave off one percentage point from Kyiv’s GDP growth, according to a high-ranking Ukrainian official, Reuters reported. 

The discord arises from Poland’s recent elections and complications arising from the transitioning government. Polish truckers, contending that Ukrainians have unfairly seized their market through wartime regulatory changes, have initiated these protests. Thousands of trucks remain stranded at the border due to the protests that began on November 6. The primary demand of the Polish hauliers is to halt Ukrainian truckers’ permit-free entry into the EU, a request deemed unattainable by Kyiv and Brussels.

Taras Kachka, Ukraine’s trade representative and deputy economy minister, revealed that unpublished government data disclosed a drop in imports from $5.2 billion in October to $3.8 billion in the first 26 days of November. These figures illustrate the detrimental impact of the protests on Ukraine’s economy, which had previously shrunk by almost a third following Russia’s invasion.

Talks between Ukraine, Poland, and the EU seem to have reached an impasse. Derkach, Ukraine’s Deputy Infrastructure Minister, expressed the need for the protesters to present concrete demands beyond permits to resume discussions. The Polish truckers remain steadfast in their protests, seeking political engagement from Poland’s major parties. The recent political transition in Poland has led to uncertainty, as the incumbent Law and Justice party, lacking a parliamentary majority, has formed a government despite expectations for pro-EU leadership under Donald Tusk. The Federation of Employers of Ukraine has estimated direct economic losses to be approximately 400 million euros ($437 million).