Escalation, negotiations, concessions to Russia: the Spanish press described five scenarios for the development of the war in Ukraine

Western media have outlined possible scenarios for how the war in Ukraine could develop.

Among them are the freezing of the conflict, a large-scale war between Russia and NATO, and the start of negotiations due to the depletion of resources on both the Russian and Ukrainian sides.

These scenarios were presented by the Spanish newspaper El Mundo.

1. U.S. President Donald Trump increases pressure on Russia and imposes a fragile peace.

Analysts believe this is unlikely in the near term, since for the Kremlin the war is “existential,” and it will continue at any cost. Negotiations, they note, cannot end the war — they can only suspend it temporarily.

2. The war expands to include NATO’s eastern members.

Any provocation — for example, in the Baltic region — could escalate into a full-scale war.

3. The war continues into 2026 despite attempts to stop it.

This is considered one of the most probable scenarios, since Ukraine will not surrender, and Russian President Vladimir Putin cannot end the war without achieving something that could be called a victory. Both sides are rapidly exhausting their resources, but Europe continues to support Ukraine, while China and North Korea assist Russia.

4. The Russian economy deteriorates, forcing Putin to begin negotiations.

For the first time since the start of the war, there is real concern in the Kremlin about the rapid worsening of Russia’s military economy in recent months and pessimistic forecasts for 2026.

5. Allied support dries up, and Ukraine is forced to yield to Russia’s maximalist demands.

This scenario could materialize particularly if Germany’s Alternative for Germany (AfD) party or similar forces in other EU countries come to power. However, analysts consider it unlikely due to the firm stance of Eastern European states that fear Russia.