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January 9, 2024Chief Commander of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Valeriy Zaluzhny, intended to launch a counteroffensive in the south aiming to reach the borders of Crimea back in 2022, but this plan faced opposition from American partners.
“If he had done it in time, it could have changed the course of the war, for better or for worse,” Business Insider believes.
The plan remained the same as a year later: to break through the Zaporizhzhia region towards Crimea and sever the land corridor to Russia to isolate Russian forces on the peninsula, but this was before Russia constructed defensive lines there.
This idea was considered bold and even risky, but ultimately, it was never executed. Zaluzhny and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky voiced this plan to Western partners. At that time, the chief commander didn’t request armored vehicles from the US, only 90 additional howitzers and artillery ammunition.
“However, at the planning stage, Ukraine had not yet demonstrated offensive capabilities, and American officials were against Zaluzhny’s plan. There were concerns that advancing from Berdyansk to Melitopol and down to the Sea of Azov could create vulnerable points on the front line, especially considering the uncertainty of whether Ukraine could coordinate brigades for an effective offensive,” writes Business Insider.
From the US perspective, “failure was probable, and its consequences potentially catastrophic,” even leading to the capture of Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro. Hence, Washington insisted on focusing efforts on liberating Kherson because, as a source stated, the Ukrainian Armed Forces lacked trained personnel and equipment.
“We thought that if they bit off more than they could chew in the south, they would simply be defeated,” said a source of Trofimov’s at the Pentagon.
Zaluzhny disagreed and responded to the Americans that Ukraine “should attack where it’s necessary, not where it’s possible.” However, since the US controlled a significant portion of military aid to Ukraine, there was no room for argument, and the bet was placed on Kherson.