Former adviser to the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Arestovych, stated that Russia has a twofold numerical advantage on the frontline

Russia currently holds approximately a two-to-one numerical advantage on the front lines.

Former adviser to the Office of the President, Oleksiy Arestovych, has stated that Russia currently has approximately double the numerical advantage on the frontline.

Arestovych provided a breakdown of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), which suggests that more than half of the Ukrainian army cannot be stationed on the front lines.

“The AFU has about 850,000 personnel, according to statements from our Defense Ministry spokespeople. Of these, approximately 120,000 are Special Operations Forces, according to our members of parliament. About 100,000 are in hospitals – wounded, recovering, and so on. Around 100,000 are deployed on the borders with Belarus and Transnistria. Roughly 150,000 are soldiers in brigades on the front lines who refuse to carry out combat tasks. They don’t flee but remain there, enjoying full provisions, yet they don’t fight. Another approximately 150,000 – about a third – are only partially fit for service. They are part of the force but cannot undertake complex combat tasks. Additionally, there are 150,000 National Guard troops, of whom 60-70,000 are actively fighting, while the rest perform domestic tasks. Plus, about 15,000 border guards are engaged in combat,” Arestovych said.

His calculations amount to a total of 315,000 personnel actively engaged in combat roles.

“This entire force is now fighting against a 650,000-strong Russian grouping. That’s the answer to why 600,000 Russians consistently maintain an overall advantage, including in specific sectors, compared to Ukraine’s 900,000 troops,” Arestovych explained.

He also expressed the view that Russia will inevitably capture Pokrovsk soon, which will open the way towards Pavlohrad. He noted that “there are no fortifications before Pavlohrad, as the military have reported.” After that, Russia will face a “fork in the road” – either advancing further toward Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia or starting to “cut off” the Donbas to fully reach the administrative borders of Donetsk Oblast.

It’s worth noting that Arestovych previously stated that all internal meetings at the Office of the President are conducted in Russian.

He made these comments in response to President Volodymyr Zelensky’s remarks in Lex Fridman’s podcast. Zelensky had said he does not respect the people of Russia and does not want to speak Russian because it is “the language of weapons.”

“All negotiations were conducted in Russian, all behind-the-scenes discussions were in Russian. The Office of the President is a place where Russian is spoken by everyone without exception, including Zelensky. Always. There are no internal exceptions; it’s only for official appearances. A person says that they don’t respect their native language – the language of their mother, the language in which they made their career and grew up – but in practice, it’s different. I haven’t heard a single meeting during my 2.5 years at the Office that wasn’t conducted in Russian,” Arestovych stated.