“If Europe cannot compensate for the halt in U.S. aid to Ukraine, Kyiv could lose the war”, – expert says

If Europe cannot compensate for the cessation of U.S. aid to Ukraine under Donald Trump, Kyiv may lose the war by 2026.

This opinion was expressed to the American television channel CNBC by Max Bergmann, director of the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

“The danger is that in 2026, we may see in Kyiv what we saw in Kabul in 2021—a military collapse leading to the end of Ukraine and Ukrainian democracy,” he said.

Bergmann noted that “it is unclear whether Ukraine can survive the gap between the cessation of American aid and the scaling up of European defense production.”

The channel also outlined ways Europe could maintain support for the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF).

One of the key measures is the confiscation of Russian sovereign assets, amounting to €250 billion, frozen within the EU. However, the report highlights the “fear among some EU members of financial consequences” of such a step—likely referring to concerns over eroding trust in the European financial system among third countries, potentially triggering a capital outflow from the EU. Additionally, this move could severely complicate any future restoration of relations with Russia.

Other proposed measures involve increasing the financial contributions of European nations. The channel notes that from January 2022 to October 2024, Europe allocated €241 billion in aid, while the U.S. contributed €119 billion. Of this, Europe has actually delivered €125 billion, compared to €88 billion from the U.S.