‘Kyiv risks losing.’ A Washington Post columnist named a grim alternative to the stalemate on the front lines

The main risk regarding Ukraine is not a deadlock on the front, but the defeat of Kyiv.

This viewpoint was expressed by European observer Lee Hockstader in a column titled “In Ukraine, the risk is not a stalemate. It’s a rout,” published in The Washington Post.

“The potential conclusion of the Russian-Ukrainian war has suddenly been vocalized: Kyiv risks losing—and suffering an unimaginable bloodbath and its aftermath,” wrote the author.

In his opinion, “Ukraine’s fate hangs by a thread.” There are two reasons: its inability to reclaim territory from Russian forces and delays in Western assistance—both from the US and Europe.

“Without injections of funds, weapons, and ammunition, even the disappointing status quo of the departing year is unlikely to be maintained,” Hockstader believes.

According to him, Ukrainian forces, running out of equipment, “might be forced to retreat, shorten their defensive lines, and abandon territory.” However, a complete military collapse of the Ukrainians in the coming months is unlikely, but Vladimir Putin is counting on a prolonged war.

“Putin’s main advantage is strategic patience—the ability to outlast what he believes is limited Western political will and resources to support Ukraine. Eventually, he reckons, Ukraine will be forced to surrender,” the author writes.

The timing of this surrender could be “accelerated” if the West does not approve military aid to Ukraine now.

“This grim scenario will deal a staggering blow to the prestige and credibility of the West, showing that its promises to support Ukraine ‘as much as necessary’ were hollow,” concludes Hockstader.