One year after the travel permit: 400,000 young Ukrainians have left, businesses lost one in five job applicants

A year ago, the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine, at the initiative of President Volodymyr Zelensky, permitted men between the ages of 18 and 22 to travel abroad. Over the past year, around 400,000 young men in this age group have left the country, employers have recorded a severe labor shortage, and salaries for entry-level specialists have risen by nearly a quarter.

Zelensky explained the measure as necessary to prevent the mass departure of teenagers before they turned 18 and their subsequent education abroad.

“Our logic is that otherwise there simply will not be boys in the upper grades of our schools. They will not be finishing school in Ukraine. And they will not be enrolling in universities here. We are seeing a decline in the number of such children. Parents were taking children out before they turned 18. In our view, children who finish school in Ukraine have a greater chance of returning if they leave. Children who finish school and university in Ukraine have an even greater chance. Children who finish school abroad have less chance of returning to Ukraine afterward. This is the statistics we have,” the president said.

Minister of Social Policy Denys Ulyutin told Forbes in an interview that between August 2025 and April 2026, 400,000 young men aged 18 to 22 left Ukraine. At the same time, demographer and head of the Office of Migration Policy Vasyl Voskoboinyk notes that this figure is an estimate from European partners, not confirmed Ukrainian statistics: it does not reflect the number of unique individuals and does not account for those returning. The State Border Guard Service of Ukraine records only the overall outflow of travelers, without breaking down statistics for this age group.

Over that same year, pro-Russian information resources on social media received more than 20 million views of publications on the topic of young Ukrainian men leaving the country, according to calculations by Ukrainska Pravda. This information campaign employed narratives about the absence of a future in the country, fear of border closures, and the alleged concealment by authorities of the true scale of emigration.

Demographic and educational consequences

Voskoboinyk states that no labor market catastrophe has occurred: the majority of men in this age group were students, and approximately 300,000 were employed — roughly 2% of the workforce.

“At the same time, businesses felt the loss of personnel and the increased difficulty of finding young employees, particularly in retail, logistics, food service, and manufacturing. The main consequence will manifest over time: young people are getting their education, starting careers, and putting down roots abroad, so the likelihood of their return is gradually decreasing,” the expert notes.

The demographer also points out that the demographic situation at the time the decree was adopted was already critical as a result of the war, high mortality, low birth rates, and multimillion-person migration. In the long term, Ukraine risks losing not only workers but also some potential parents — and therefore future newborns. It is not yet possible to assess the effect of reducing the preventive departure of 16- and 17-year-old boys, Voskoboinyk emphasizes.

The travel permit did not significantly affect the education sector. According to the Ministry of Education, 1.2 million applications were submitted to higher education institutions — 28% more than the previous year. Rector of the Kyiv-Mohyla Academy Serhiy Kvit confirms this trend: NaUKMA received 16,175 applications for bachelor’s programs, compared to 10,150 the year before. According to him, students did not begin withdrawing from university en masse after the permit was introduced.

“If a person enrolls in a Ukrainian university and continues studying here, it means they are linking their future to Ukraine,” Kvit concludes.

A blow to the labor market

The number of men aged 18–22 who responded to job postings on Work.ua fell by 19% — from 16,712 in July 2025 to 13,483 in July 2026. This was reported by Work.ua Director of Communications and Partnerships Lesia Prymakova. According to a survey by the job search site, 48% of companies faced a personnel shortage, and only 7% of employers said the outflow of this group had no impact on them — because they had begun hiring workers from other age and social groups. The shortage of staff was felt most acutely by employers in the hospitality and restaurant business and retail trade: in these categories, the number of applications from young men fell by approximately 29%.

Owner of the Bilyi Nalyv restaurant chain Olena Borysova said that in the first months after the permit was adopted nothing changed much, but afterward young job applicants became significantly fewer, and now they are rare. Young men remaining in Ukraine, she says, are mostly looking for work close to home or prefer remote formats, avoiding daily trips to the city center.

Sommelier and owner of the wine bar Win Bar Oleh Kravchenko said his establishment is losing employees for two reasons at once: older men are subject to mobilization, while younger ones are actively making use of the travel permit.

“Two people are leaving us right now: a bartender and a cook. They are planning to go abroad and build their lives there,” the restaurateur says.

Wage increases and an expanded labor pool

The personnel shortage has triggered competition for workers. Kravchenko is forced to raise salaries at least once every six months — the wage bill has grown by 5–10%. In addition, the establishment has begun hiring more women, whereas previously only young men worked as waiters.

According to Work.ua, over the past year the median salary rose by 20%, and for entry-level positions even more. In job postings marked “For students,” the median salary rose from 23,950 to approximately EUR 573 (29,700 hryvnias) — an increase of 24%; in postings marked “No experience required” — from 23,500 to approximately EUR 560 (29,000 hryvnias), an increase of 23%. The overall median salary now stands at approximately EUR 579 (30,000 hryvnias). The median desired salary of young men aged 18–22 rose from approximately EUR 425 (22,000 hryvnias) in July 2025 to approximately EUR 483 (25,000 hryvnias) in July 2026 — an increase of 14%. Annual inflation as of July stands at 7.7%.

Chair of the Sustainable Development Committee of the Federation of Employers of Ukraine Olena Kolesnykova notes that businesses have begun looking at the potential labor pool much more broadly: 94.4% are willing to work with internally displaced persons, 91% with veterans, and 88% with people with disabilities. The Federation, together with the Ministry of Economy, supports the “Adult Intern” program, aimed at returning older people and those who have been out of the labor market for an extended period to employment.

How to retain young people

Kolesnykova is convinced that salary alone is not enough to retain young people. She says what is needed is the opportunity to gain first experience while still studying, a clear career path, modern training, and adequate working conditions. Among registered unemployed persons, 59.1% of those surveyed cited high wages as important, 51.3% cited stability and security, 39.7% cited a flexible schedule, and 39.2% cited good relations within the team. Kolesnykova considers dual education — which provides a first job, mentorship, and on-the-job training with an employer — to be the most practical tool for retaining young people.

“For me, the right question is not how to prevent young people from leaving, but how to make it advantageous for a young person, after completing their education, to start a career and build a life in Ukraine,” the chair of the Sustainable Development Committee of the Federation of Employers of Ukraine concludes.