The Economist: war in Ukraine has entered an attrition phase, the end is unpredictable

Peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, mediated by the United States, have reached a dead end, and the war itself is transitioning into a prolonged phase of attrition — the winner will be whoever can hold out longer.

That is the forecast offered by The Economist.

Earlier in the year, US-mediated talks appeared for a time to offer a potential basis for a complex peace agreement. A scenario was discussed in which Ukraine might cede part of the Donbas in exchange for security guarantees, but that framework never gained traction.

The Russian side did not approve any specific proposals, and the idea of a compromise settlement effectively lost political momentum. On May 22, the United States officially announced it was withdrawing from the negotiations. Nevertheless, some optimistic assessments allow that the diplomatic process could partially resume as early as this summer.

“Most likely, the fighting will continue until either Ukraine or Russia breaks,” the publication writes.

Analysts acknowledge that the “breaking point” for Russia remains uncertain. Among the vulnerabilities cited are economic stagnation under the pressure of sanctions, internal contradictions, and war losses. At the same time, revenues from high oil prices are temporarily supporting the Russian budget, which makes it difficult to predict the duration of the conflict.

A Ukrainian diplomat, commenting on the situation, stressed the unprecedented uncertainty surrounding the conflict’s trajectory and drew a parallel with Germany’s collapse in 1918 following its promising spring offensive.

“We have become quite similar (to Russia), although our risks are different. Who will collapse first, or what if neither of us collapses? Nobody can tell you that right now,” the diplomat said.

According to UNIAN, the same article in The Economist states that Ukraine must be prepared for a protracted conflict with Russia that could last several more years. Government sources report that Zelensky has ordered preparations for another two to three years of war.

Analyst Michael Kofman stated that Russia has not achieved the results it expected at the front and is increasingly relying on wearing Ukraine down. In his words, “Ukraine is objectively in a better position than before.”