The operation near Kursk has weakened an already exhausted Ukrainian front – Foreign Affairs

The offensive in the Kursk region weakens Ukraine’s already shaky front, as experienced brigades deployed on Russian territory are not being used in defense.

This is discussed in an article by the American magazine Foreign Affairs.

According to the publication, by continuing to defend, Ukraine would have “a good chance to exhaust the Russian offensive while simultaneously addressing staffing issues and stabilizing the front line by winter.” Then, in 2025, Ukraine could launch an offensive against weakened Russian forces, with fewer risks.

Currently, however, this operation is shifting the “balance of attrition” unfavorably for Ukraine, as the Ukrainian Armed Forces do not have reserves to respond to any Russian breakthrough and are experiencing shortages of artillery ammunition in some areas.

The authors of the article believe that Kyiv wanted to conduct an offensive before the U.S. elections to have a stronger position in case of potential negotiations. However, analysts doubt that Moscow will agree to negotiations until it regains control over its entire territory. It will be easier for Russia to achieve this in the winter when the dense foliage in the forests used by Ukrainian forces for cover falls. For now, Russia can continue to advance in Ukraine.

The losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk region are growing, and there is a high probability that the region could become the site of another exhausting battle if Russia decides to reclaim the territory with significant forces, repeating the situation with Krynyky, where Moscow sent large forces to recapture this strategically unimportant village. However, if Russia chooses a different tactic in the Kursk region and does not advance with many units but focuses on weakening Ukrainian forces with aviation, drones, and minimal ground troops, “this gambit may not pay off for Kyiv.”

Ukraine sought to avoid a symmetrical battle with a numerically superior enemy in the Kursk region, but the longer the battle lasts and becomes more positional, the more likely it is that these advantages will disappear. And bad news from the front could “quickly swing the pendulum of public perception.”

Foreign Affairs compares the Kursk operation with others where Ukraine suffered heavy losses without significant gains, such as the battles for Bakhmut, Krynyky, and the counteroffensive in the Zaporizhzhia region. Holding part of the Kursk region will require even more resources, and the success of the operation can only be assessed over time.

Earlier today, Julian Röpcke stated that the “moral boost” from the Kursk operation among the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Donbas is no longer being felt.

Western media have also reported that during Ukraine’s offensive in the Kursk region, Russia managed to capture more settlements in the Donetsk region.