The Ukrainian Armed Forces’ advance to the Azov Sea or the capture of at least one major city in the south as part of a counteroffensive is considered unlikely – military analyst Julian Röpke says

The liberation of the village of Rabotyne in the Zaporizhzhia region of Ukraine did not lead to a breakthrough by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the front, according to military analyst Julian Röpke.

Röpke finds it unlikely that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will reach the Azov Sea or capture any major cities in the south as part of a counteroffensive, citing hasty and erroneous conclusions. Western tanks did not become a significant advantage for Ukraine and they underestimated Russia’s capabilities, including minefields, kamikaze drones and precision-guided artillery by drones.

“Similarly, the idea that Russian lines, as in 2022, can be broken at a single point and then the occupying forces will hastily retreat. Currently, I don’t see any reason why current and future battles won’t continue for 5-10 weeks for a single village,” the expert believes.

In his opinion, Russian orders to “stand to the death” could create a situation where the Ukrainian army’s advance towards Polohy and Tokmak will not lead to their swift liberation, as seen in the cases of Kherson, Berdiansk, Izium, or Kupiansk but rather result in a prolonged battle of attrition, similar to the one in Bahmut.