The Ukrainian Armed Forces may face a severe manpower shortage on the front lines within two years

The Armed Forces of Ukraine may run out of soldiers on the front line within two years.

This information reported according to former Member of Parliament and current serviceman Ihor Lutsenko.

He reached this conclusion based on official and unofficial data on mobilization and losses in the Ukrainian army.

MP Roman Kostenko had stated that Ukraine mobilizes 30,000 people per month, but Lutsenko believes the actual figure is closer to 20,000, as this number is not consistently achieved each month.

Law enforcement agencies register around 16,000 to 19,000 criminal cases for draft evasion per month — and in reality, Lutsenko suggests, the actual figure may be five times higher.

Media reports estimate monthly combat losses at 5,000 to 8,000 soldiers, and Lutsenko notes that an equal number are severely wounded, making them unfit for duty either long-term or permanently.

“A conservative estimate would suggest that the Ukrainian army is shrinking by 10,000 to 15,000 people every month. Another rough hypothesis: the actual number of soldiers truly engaged in combat — really holding the front line — is far less than the ‘paper million’. In reality, it might be 400,000 to 500,000 at best (of which only a small part is deployed at the front). Possibly as low as 300,000. At this rate, in just two years, there may be no one left on the front. That’s the optimistic scenario — if nothing changes,” Lutsenko wrote.

For reference, volunteer Taras Chmut previously stated that Russia is recruiting more troops than it is losing, while Ukraine is losing more than it is able to recruit.