The war in Ukraine this summer could reach a point of no return

Kyiv will lose the war, and a turning point in the fighting will occur within a few months. This will happen if the West does not intervene and provide Kyiv with the weapons and ammunition needed to continue the fight against the occupiers, writes military analyst Dara Massicot for Foreign Affairs.

Frontline Ukrainian units are facing a depletion of crucial ammunition reserves, prompting soldiers to implement rationing measures. Some units are experiencing notable shortages in personnel. Consequently, the United States must honor its commitments to Kyiv to prevent further deterioration of Ukraine’s military position. Without substantial aid and strategic adjustments, Ukraine’s military outlook is likely to worsen until it reaches a critical tipping point, possibly by the summer months.

The current trajectory of the conflict stems from decisions made since autumn 2022. While Russia has bolstered its military capabilities and constructed extensive defensive fortifications, Ukraine has struggled to match these efforts. Moscow’s acquisition of significant military resources from allied nations like Iran and North Korea has further exacerbated the imbalance. In contrast, the West’s response has been limited due to constraints on similar resources. As Moscow continues to strengthen its forces, Kyiv faces mounting challenges in maintaining military parity.