The World Bank has downgraded Ukraine’s GDP growth forecast for next year

The World Bank, in its updated macroeconomic forecast for Europe and Central Asia, has confirmed its January projection that Ukraine’s GDP growth will slow this year — from 2.9% in 2023 to 2% in 2024 — and has revised downward its growth outlook for 2025 from 7% to 5.2%.

The forecast for 2026 is based on the assumption that the war will end and reconstruction will begin in the country.

“Growth in Ukraine is expected to slow to 2% this year, before rebounding to 5.2% in 2026, assuming hostilities cease and reconstruction begins,” the document published today states.

For reference, GDP growth in 2023 was 5.5%.

Meanwhile, according to the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER), Ukraine’s real GDP grew by 1.1% in January–March 2025 compared to the same period in 2024.

“The GDP, industrial output, construction, and other sector data published by the State Statistics Service allowed IER experts to refine their assessment of real GDP growth in the first quarter of 2025. According to our estimates, real GDP grew by 1.2% in January and 0.7% in February,” the IER said in its monthly economic report.

It’s worth noting that the National Bank of Ukraine also recently revised downward its economic forecast for GDP growth this year. The rise in inflation in Ukraine may be driven by last year’s poor harvest, higher prices on excise goods, and increased business costs for energy and labor.