Trump revealed the key concession Russia must make for the “peace plan”

Against the backdrop of Russia ramping up missile production, the Donald Trump administration is intensifying its efforts to achieve an end to the war: U.S. Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll, who oversees peace negotiations on Ukraine, is preparing for another visit to Kyiv.

Washington’s argument remains the same: Russia has a military advantage, and therefore, in the view of Trump’s team, Ukraine should agree to a peace deal as soon as possible.

According to Ukrainian intelligence, by June Russia had increased its defense industry capacity to produce about 2,900 missiles per year, including cruise and ballistic missiles. Last year, Russia launched more than 2,000 missiles at Ukraine and is preparing for even more intensive strikes, while still keeping hundreds in storage. Experts note that production is already outpacing the rate of use, allowing Moscow to build up a reserve to pressure Kyiv and pose potential threats to other European countries.

A key U.S. condition has been the following demand: first a peace agreement, then long-term security guarantees for Ukraine. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio communicated this to European allies, and Trump has made it clear he will not invite the Ukrainian leader to the White House before an agreement is signed. Kyiv, however, considers Western security guarantees to be the foundation of any possible peace with Russia, which increases the tension between Ukraine’s expectations and Washington’s conditions.