Ukraine faces frontline collapse even if US aid is unblocked – Politico

Ukraine faces a “serious catastrophe” on the battlefield and the collapse of the front line, even if the US Congress unlocks aid to Kyiv.

This is reported by Politico, citing senior Ukrainian military officials who served under the command of former Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Valeriy Zaluzhny.

According to them, the “military picture is bleak,” and there is a “significant risk of the front line collapsing where Russian generals decide to concentrate their offensive.” Thanks to numerical superiority and guided air bombs, Russia is likely to be able to “break through the front line and destroy it in some areas,” military officials said. They anticipate a major Russian offensive by August.

“There is nothing that could help Ukraine right now because there are no serious technologies capable of stopping the large mass of troops that Russia will likely throw at us. We don’t have these technologies, and there are not enough of them in the West,” one of the sources said.

They believe that Ukraine and the West have made a number of mistakes, while Russia has been able to adapt to the Western weapons supplied to the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

“Zaluzhny called this the ‘One-Chance War.’ By this, he meant that weapon systems quickly become obsolete because Russians quickly counter them. For example, we successfully used Storm Shadow and SCALP cruise missiles, but only for a short time. Russians always learn. They don’t give us a second chance. And they succeed in this,” one officer said.

As another example, F-16 fighters are mentioned.

“Every weapon has its time. F-16s were needed in 2023; they won’t fit for 2024,” the source said, noting that Russia is already prepared to counter them.

“In recent months, we have begun to notice rockets launched by the Russians from Dzhankoy in northern Crimea, but without explosive warheads. We couldn’t understand what they were doing, and then we realized: they are determining the range,” he said.

Thus, Russia calculates where it is best to place its S-400 systems to maximize the area they can cover and attack F-16s, keeping them away from the front line and Russian logistical centers.

Sources also refute the official statements of the Ukrainian Armed Forces that Russia is waging a “meat grinder” war.

“Don’t believe the noise that they are just throwing troops into a meat grinder for slaughter. Of course, they also do that – further maximizing the impact of their numerical superiority – but they also learn and improve,” an officer said.

Moreover, Ukraine significantly lacks people on the front line, exacerbating the problem of insufficient support from the West, the interlocutors say.

“We not only have a military crisis, we have a political crisis,” one officer said, referring to difficulties with mobilization.

According to him, as long as Ukraine avoids total conscription, “Russia is now gathering resources and will be ready to start a major attack around August, or maybe earlier.”