Ukraine has lost thousands of experienced fighters in Avdiivka, and still will retreat from the city

The decision to persistently defend Avdiivka amidst a shortage of personnel and ammunition could prove as costly for Ukraine as the loss of experienced fighters in Bakhmut, which undermined the summer counteroffensive, writes the Financial Times.

“In October and perhaps in December and early January, it could be argued that Ukraine was inflicting disproportionately high attrition on the Russian attackers. That argument is much harder to make now,” believes military analyst Henry Shlottman. In his opinion, the redeployment of the 3rd Assault Brigade to Avdiivka may still indicate an intention to withdraw troops from it. However, Zelensky and Syrskyi may also have “rational reasons” to try to hold it. In particular, it would buy time to prepare defensive positions further westward. Additionally, it could create a symbol of Ukraine’s ability to resist Russian forces, which would boost morale.

It is worth noting that many of Ukraine’s military decisions are based not on the logic of combat or the preservation of its soldiers but on the desire to gain publicity for Zelensky. Thousands of Ukrainian soldiers died for Bakhmut, although it no longer had strategic significance. However, the president elevated this city, calling it a fortress and therefore feared reputational losses due to retreat. As a result, the huge number of killed and wounded Ukrainians further reduced Zelensky’s rating than if he had saved soldiers’ lives.