Ukraine is facing an acute manpower shortage amid U.S. pressure for a peace agreement

Ukraine is facing a growing shortage of troops along the 1,000-kilometer front line, while President Donald Trump is increasing pressure on Kyiv to agree to a peace plan.

Since February 2022, law enforcement agencies have opened 311,327 cases of desertion and unauthorized abandonment of unit, about 184,100 of them in 2025 alone. The sharp spike is explained by a shortage of mobilization, mass desertions, and the departure of draft-age men after the August 28 lifting of the ban on foreign travel for men aged 18–22.

The situation is particularly difficult in the area of Pokrovsk, a key hub in Donetsk region. Russian forces are engaged in street fighting and control about 60% of the city. Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledges that Russia has a threefold advantage in manpower overall and an eightfold advantage in the battle for Pokrovsk. Many brigades at the front are only 30–50% staffed; some positions are held by just two or three soldiers, and there is a lack of trained reserves for rotation.

Against this backdrop, the Trump administration is insisting on the adoption of a 28-point peace plan developed with Russian participation. According to reports, the document provides for territorial concessions and a reduction in the size of the Ukrainian armed forces from roughly 850,000 to 600,000 service members, which further weakens Kyiv’s negotiating position.