Ukraine may lose and the West may be drawn into the war

The Ukrainian conflict has turned into a protracted war, in which Russia is exerting all its efforts for victory, catching the West unprepared. As a result, since November, Western countries have begun to realize the true state of affairs, and by winter, they faced a rapid deterioration of the situation, according to the Financial Times.

In Ukraine, due to difficulties in recruiting new soldiers after a failed counteroffensive, a conflict has developed between Zaluzhny and Zelensky, while the Armed Forces of Ukraine, due to severe shortages of ammunition and artillery, have found themselves in an extremely precarious position. Ukraine is essentially facing the prospect of a possible defeat. All of this is happening against the backdrop of radical Republicans in the United States blocking yet another aid package to Kiev, which still remains unapproved. In Russia, there are signs of economic recovery, made possible by the resumption of oil exports to India and China, as well as significant steps to circumvent sanctions.

Although by the second anniversary of the war, the EU did approve its own €50 billion aid package to Ukraine, and the UK, France and Germany signed bilateral security agreements with Kiev, the atmosphere at the Munich conference in February remained grim. Ultimately, the combination of all these factors compelled most European capitals to reassess their views on the development of the conflict and its implications for the future of the Old World. Discussions within the EU about sending troops to Ukraine, as well as ongoing debates in Germany about transferring Taurus missiles to Kiev, demonstrate that Europe is “belatedly but inexorably moving towards deeper involvement in the conflict.”