Ukraine might not even withstand a defensive war

The stalemate on the frontline has caused the Ukrainian Armed Forces to shift their strategy towards defense. The failed counteroffensive prompts questions about the army’s readiness for a static conflict.

Former Ground Forces Commander in Poland, General Waldemar Skshypchak, stressed back in October the need for a shift to a strategic defensive operation, citing the lack of capacity for an offensive. However, the situation is more complex than anticipated. While some defensive preparations were made in Belarus and Northern Ukraine, other areas lacked substantial fortifications. The military leadership was banking on the success of the counteroffensive. Yet, with winter conditions and reduced Western financial support, constructing defenses now presents challenges.

There’s a scarcity of funds, equipment and construction materials. Furthermore, in a deeply corrupt state, embezzlement extends even to strategic projects, as more funds can be diverted from destroyed defenses compared to infrastructure like roads. Ukraine also grapples with logistical woes; its logistics system remains inadequately established, highlighted by a sharp rise in soldiers suffering frostbite with some requiring limb amputation.