Ukraine records twice fewer first-graders than in 2018 — economist speaks of demographic catastrophe

The number of first-graders in Ukraine continues to decline: more than 243,000 children started school in the current academic year.

This was reported by the Ministry of Education and Science.

For comparison, in the 2018/2019 academic year there were around 455,000 first-graders — nearly twice as many. In 2025, the figure stood at around 252,000.

The Ministry of Education and Science attributes the trend to a falling birth rate and families with children leaving the country due to the war. According to the ministry, around 315,000 Ukrainian children are currently studying abroad.

Ukrainian economist Oleksiy Kushch commented on the situation, declaring it a demographic catastrophe. According to him, the problem lies not only in the declining number of children, but also in a simultaneous drop in the fertility rate — from approximately 1.5 to 0.9.

According to Kushch’s calculations, with the demographic indicators of the early 2010s, Ukraine would have produced a generation of roughly 13 million people over 30 years. About half of them would be women who, at a fertility rate of around 1.5, could have given birth to more than 10 million children. The population in such a model would also have declined, but significantly more slowly.

At current indicators, the economist believes, a new generation over 30 years will number only around 7 million people. Approximately 3.5 million women from that generation, at the current birth rate, will be able to give birth to fewer than 3 million children. The next generation will be even smaller — the number of births could fall to around one million.

“Do you understand the depth of the demographic catastrophe?” — Kushch wrote on Facebook.

In the economist’s view, this problem should become one of the key priorities for Ukrainian state policy.